Putin’s Strategy in Ongoing Ukraine War

Adolfo Arranz

2 min read

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19-11-2024

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Vladimir Putin's strategy in the ongoing war in Ukraine has been a subject of intense scrutiny and analysis since the invasion began in February 2022. Initially characterized by a swift, decisive push towards Kyiv, the reality on the ground has proven far more complex, leading to a significant evolution of Russian military tactics and political objectives. Understanding this shifting strategy is crucial to comprehending the conflict's trajectory.

From Blitzkrieg to Attrition: A Change in Tactics

The initial Russian strategy, seemingly modeled on a swift blitzkrieg, aimed for a rapid overthrow of the Ukrainian government and the installation of a pro-Russian regime. This phase, marked by a multi-pronged attack on multiple fronts, encountered unexpectedly stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces. The failure to achieve a quick victory forced a recalibration of Russian tactics.

The focus shifted towards a war of attrition, characterized by:

• Concentrated artillery barrages: The Russian military has relied heavily on overwhelming artillery firepower to soften Ukrainian defenses and reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• Targeting of civilian infrastructure: Attacks on power grids, water supplies, and heating systems aim to undermine civilian morale and pressure the Ukrainian government. This strategy has been widely condemned as a war crime.
• Mobilization of reservists: Faced with significant troop losses, Russia initiated a partial mobilization, bringing in reservists and volunteers to bolster its depleted ranks. This, however, has not fully addressed the issue of manpower shortages.
• Mercenary utilization: The Wagner Group and other private military contractors have played a significant, albeit controversial, role in Russia's war effort, particularly in intense battles such as Bakhmut.

Evolving Political Objectives: Beyond Kyiv

While the initial goal seemed to be a complete conquest of Ukraine, the failure to achieve this early on prompted a reassessment of political objectives. Currently, the Russian strategy appears to center on:

• Securing territorial gains: Focus has shifted to consolidating control over occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas region and Crimea.
• Weakening Ukraine: The long-term goal may be to inflict sufficient damage on Ukraine’s military and infrastructure to prevent it from posing a threat to Russia in the future.
• International pressure: Russia continues to utilize its energy resources as a tool to exert pressure on European nations and undermine Western support for Ukraine.

The Unpredictability Factor

Predicting the future trajectory of the war remains challenging. Several factors contribute to this unpredictability:

• Western military aid to Ukraine: The continued supply of advanced weaponry and military training to Ukraine significantly impacts the balance of power on the battlefield.
• Internal dynamics within Russia: The war's increasing cost in human lives and resources is leading to growing discontent within Russia.
• International sanctions: The impact of international sanctions on the Russian economy remains to be fully seen and could potentially influence Putin’s strategic decisions.

In conclusion, Putin’s strategy in the Ukraine war has been characterized by a remarkable degree of adaptation and recalibration. While the initial blitzkrieg failed, the shift towards a war of attrition, combined with a re-evaluation of political objectives, has created a protracted and brutal conflict with significant implications for the future of Europe and global security. The war's outcome remains uncertain, heavily dependent on a multitude of interacting factors.