iran’s influence waning in trump’s new administration

Adolfo Arranz

2 min read

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17-11-2024

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The Trump administration's approach to Iran marks a significant departure from its predecessors, signaling a potential decline in Iran's regional influence. This shift stems from a fundamental reassessment of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, coupled with a more assertive foreign policy posture towards Tehran.

Reversal of the Iran Nuclear Deal

The cornerstone of this altered approach is President Trump's withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. This decision, announced in May 2018, reversed years of diplomatic engagement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. The administration argued that the JCPOA was fundamentally flawed, failing to adequately address Iran's ballistic missile program and regional destabilizing activities. This withdrawal reinstated and tightened previously lifted sanctions, significantly impacting Iran's economy.

Economic Pressure and Diplomatic Isolation

The re-imposition of sanctions constitutes a major element in the strategy to curb Iran's influence. These sanctions target Iran's oil exports, a crucial component of its economy, aiming to exert maximum economic pressure. Simultaneously, the Trump administration pursued a policy of diplomatic isolation, actively working to limit Iran's engagement with international organizations and seeking to strengthen alliances against its regional activities.

Focus on Countering Iranian Regional Activities

Beyond the economic and diplomatic pressure, the Trump administration also focused explicitly on countering Iran's regional influence. This involved increasing support for regional partners perceived as threatened by Iran, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel. Military actions, such as the targeted killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, also signaled a willingness to engage in direct confrontation.

Assessing the Impact

The effectiveness of this multifaceted strategy remains a subject of ongoing debate. While the sanctions undoubtedly placed significant strain on the Iranian economy, Iran has demonstrated resilience. The extent to which the administration’s actions have genuinely curtailed Iran's regional influence is also unclear, with some arguing that the policies have inadvertently strengthened Iranian hardliners and fueled regional instability. Furthermore, the long-term implications of the administration's approach remain to be seen.

Conclusion: A Legacy of Uncertainty

The Trump administration's policy toward Iran represents a decisive break from previous engagement strategies. Whether this approach ultimately diminishes Iran’s influence remains a question that will require further analysis and consideration of long-term consequences, including the impact on regional stability and the potential for escalation. The long-term impacts of these actions are still unfolding and will continue to be a subject of international scrutiny.